Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."