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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising together. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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